Is There a Decreasing Demand for Tertiary Education?
12 November 2005
There has been a great deal of controversy over various aspects
of education in the last year from testing, to skills shortages,
league tables, privatisation, and many others including, this week,
that students are turning their backs on regional universities
amidst slowing demand for university education generally.
Whilst we are not one of the universities facing diminished
demand, in fact quite the opposite, and exceeding the demand
patterns for metropolitan universities, I was nevertheless prompted
to look at the data recently produced by the OECD.
In their most recent major report they seek to illuminate the
ways in which governments internationally are developing policies
to enhance individuals' social and economic prospects, increase
efficiencies, and mobilise resources to deal with rising demands
for education. No country can afford to preside over a shrinking
education sector and hope to be a competitive nation. So I dug
deeper to try to discern some trends that have significance for
Australian universities in particular.
The Report is massively detailed so I've had to be very
selective and focus on only a few themes.
Tertiary graduation rates were in 2002 higher than for any other
country in the world, surpassing even the US by a considerable
margin. This indicator tends to point to the rate at which
countries produce advanced knowledge, so Australia seemed
well-placed in the top 30 per cent of advanced countries in
securing jobs for graduates to use their skills. Australian
graduates are more likely to be employed, and in attractive jobs,
than non-graduates and again, Australia is one of the best
performing of the OECD countries in this respect.
This good result emanates from a country that in 2002 spent less
public money per student than the OECD average, almost alongside
the UK, but well behind the US and European countries. Australia
also spent less supporting educational institutions than the OECD
average as a percentage of GDP. Reliance on private means to
support educational involvement has increased since that time.
Australia was in 2002 the fourth most expensive country for higher
education, but for education overall was around the OECD of 1.5 per
cent of GDP on all forms of education.
Whilst Australia is above the OECD average of 1.5 per cent of
GDP spent on tertiary education, only Korea and the US expect more
as a private and personal contribution to that education, which may
perhaps go some way to explain the drop in demand that has been
occurring for a number of years. Between 1995 and 2002 public
expenditure per tertiary student in Australia dropped by 25 per
cent and has since dropped further in the period not covered by the
data.
Whilst it is always difficult to draw generalisations from such
data in relation to Australian news stories that are in focus at
present, there do seem to be some important pointers.
Australia is, for example, clearly one of the advanced nations
that provide tertiary access for a high proportion of its
population, but this is coming at a higher personal cost to
individual students. Australia is a relatively wealthy country and
the increasing emphasis on individual contributions may be
warranted, given the high employment rates and good earning
prospects of graduates, over and above non-graduates. But there may
also be a signal within these figures that the strain, particularly
on the least wealthy in regional Australia, is increasing to the
point of being a deterrent, and lower-paid entry to the workforce
when jobs are more readily available, is becoming an increasingly
attractive option.
If these trends were to continue they would be damaging to
Australia's future, and more locally to a Smart State strategy, in
a State with expansive regions.
These data warrant careful consideration in the formulation of
sustainable higher education policy.
Professor Paul Thomas is Vice-Chancellor of University of
the Sunshine Coast