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Looking towards 2007
14 October 2006
This week QTAC (Queensland Tertiary Admissions Centre) released the first snapshot of preference statistics for students wishing to enter university in 2007.
It’s a worrying time for institutions because the stakes are high. Around the country there was a marked downturn in demand for university places in 2005 and 2006. In Queensland, hundreds of places and tens of millions of dollars have been returned to the Commonwealth Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST) by universities that have been unable to meet their student targets. The University of the Sunshine Coast has not been part of this trend. In addition to 1,100 new places for 2005-2007 and additional allocations of smaller numbers of places, we were recently granted an additional 650 new places for 2007-2010. Needless to say, although we were confident that local demand is strong, we were keen to see the QTAC data.
Our first preference applications are up by 22% against 2006 (which was itself a record year with a 30% increase in first preferences). This means that providing their academic record meets our entry requirements, the majority of these first preference applications will join us in 2007, unless they decide to defer further study or join the workforce. So we are on track to continue growing and offer the new degrees and facilities that will support the future development of the Sunshine Coast. Staff numbers are also growing quickly to cater for the new disciplines being taught. These additional staff will enhance what is already a very vibrant academic community.
To put USC’s status in perspective, first preference demand across Queensland’s universities is down about 2% on 2006.
In association with the QTAC information on applications for individual programs, our Strategic Information Analysis Unit will continue to model the student population for 2007. We need to predict factors such as the numbers articulating from one year to the next, retention rates and transfers between degrees. From here we estimate the number of new students to be enrolled in each degree and consider where we might move places between areas of lower than expected demand to those with high. demand. The university needs to get it right because there are financial penalties for both under and over-enrolment, outside fairly narrow tolerance bands.
An added complication is that different disciplines are funded at different levels under the Commonwealth Grants Scheme, ranging between about $1,570 and $10,180 at the individual course (subject) level. The University is currently finalising its 2007 funding agreement with the Commonwealth and this will assume meeting agreed student load across the 10 funding clusters used by DEST to produce a total budget figure. If the actual student enrolment pattern in 2007 is under the agreed funding figure we may be required to return the difference. If we drift in the other direction, and enrol more students in the high-cost clusters, than the agreement specifies, USC needs to absorb the extra cost of educating the students.
The reporting and administration associated with managing this aspect of our enrolments is complex and expensive. It’s also a distraction as far as our core mission of teaching, research and engagement is concerned.
Professor Greg Hill is Acting Vice-Chancellor of University of the Sunshine Coast.